By: David R. Parsons, VP & Senior Spokesman

Just like the Oslo Accords three decades ago, the recent news of a peace deal between Israel and the United Arab Emirates caught everyone by surprise. The region’s attention quickly pivoted from the massive blast in Beirut’s port to Israel’s sudden opening of relations with a Gulf Arab state and its implications for the Middle East and beyond. Even the rancorous ‘black flag’ protests to oust Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu instantly lost some steam.

Many hailed the announced deal as a welcome return to the ‘peace for peace’ formula preferred by the Israeli Right, in that Israel was not being asked to concede anything to the UAE in exchange for normalising relations. Others cautioned there indeed might be a quid quo pro, as reports surfaced that Israel had agreed to either forego annexation or acquiesce to the US selling the latest F-35 stealth aircraft to the UAE.

No doubt, the so-called ‘Abraham Accord’ is a major coup. The Emirates now have become the third Arab state to break from the pack and open formal ties with Israel. Like Egypt and Jordan before them, the UAE rulers decided not to let the future of their nation and the region be held hostage to the unyielding Palestinian nationalist cause. Given the current climate, several other Sunni Arab states could soon fall in line to forge peace agreements with Israel.

But why has the UAE gone first?

To answer that, one only needs to look at a map. The UAE is located a mere 22 miles across the water from Iran and thus feels especially vulnerable to Tehran’s regional and nuclear ambitions. In light of this threat, they put in a request with the Pentagon six years ago to acquire the new F-35s, and making peace with Israel now significantly raises the odds of that being approved. Israel likely will not be able to block the sale, but they could expect to be compensated with other advanced American military hardware and technology to help maintain its qualitative edge over any potential adversaries in the region.

Secondly, the UAE’s rulers are forward-looking and want to diversify their national economy away from oil dependency and into hi-tech, which makes Israel a natural partner for them.

Thirdly, the Emirates have touted Dubai and Abu Dhabi as opulent hubs connecting East and West in the emerging global economy, and continuing to irrationally hate Israel does not mesh well with the futurist image it is trying to project.

Finally, the native citizens of the UAE comprise only 11% of the total population in their own country. The oil-rich nation has imported workers from over 200 countries, including large contingents from India and the Philippines, many of whom practice Christianity, Hinduism and other religions. So unlike most Arab/Muslim states, the Emiratis have had to become very tolerant of other faiths. Thus there are many churches, and even several synagogues to serve the growing Jewish community in the UAE.

In fact, last year the UAE welcomed the Pope to Abu Dhabi, where he performed a large public mass for tens of thousands of local Catholic workers. Styling 2019 as the “Year of Tolerance”, the emirs also approved plans for the Abrahamic Family House, a uniquely grand interfaith complex which will contain a mosque, church and synagogue all living in harmony. Thus, they appear to be very ecumenical minded, especially in promoting respect between the three Abrahamic faiths of Judaism, Christianity and Islam. In addition, there seems to be an emerging stream of Muslim Zionists in the Arabian Gulf – those who recognise certain passages in the Koran which affirm that the Land of Israel was promised by Allah to the Jews.

Globalisation? Ecumenicism? Muslim Zionism? Some of this may give Christians pause. But the potential benefits of the deal for Israel are too good to ignore.

For starters, Israeli hi-tech companies now will be able to attract investments from not only rich Arab oil sheikhs, but also from the sovereign wealth fund of the UAE, estimated to be worth over $1 trillion dollars. And Israelis who can afford it now will be able to shop and dine in the luxurious malls and hotel complexes of Dubai and Abu Dhabi.

In addition, there already are rumblings of diplomatic openings with several other Sunni Arab states, such as Oman, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco. There could also be a knock-on effect throughout the rest of the world, as many nations will begin to question why they must boycott and remain hostile towards Israel if so many Arab countries are befriending the Jewish state.

It is already clear that US President Donald Trump and his foreign policy team have pulled off a real success for Israel and other peace-loving nations. Reviled by so many at home and abroad, Trump deserves credit for the sort of peace breakthrough that other recent US presidents lacked the vision, energy and ability to attain. This also makes Trump’s re-election in November even more critical now for Israel and its emerging Arab peace partners.

Only President Trump would be able to continue the momentum of this breakthrough and spread it to other Arab capitals, because the Sunni Arab bloc has come to trust him when it comes to confronting Iran. His ‘maximum pressure’ policy has proven that Trump is serious about challenging the militant clerical regime in Tehran over its renegade quest for nuclear weapons and its export of terror, armaments and chaos throughout the region.

That is a huge departure from the policies of appeasement toward Iran adopted by the previous Obama administration, which included vice president Joe Biden. Under Obama-Biden, the Sunni Arab states felt abandoned. Now with Trump they have a sense of reassurance, even to the point of coming out openly about their warming relations with Israel.

A Trump re-election could have many other positive impacts for Israel. For some reason, Trump has not had the international coattails one would expect, since he actually is admired by many national leaders abroad. Yet some nations have cautiously held back on following his lead in moving their embassies to Jerusalem, or in recognising Israel’s sovereignty on the Golan. This is due in large part to the widespread animosity towards him among the media and elites, as well as concerns he may only be a one-term president. Yet if he wins a second term, we could expect many other nations to finally give Jerusalem the respect it deserves and place their embassies in the city. They also may join Trump in recognising the Golan as Israeli territory, and even change their stance on the legality of the settlements in Judea/Samaria, as Trump did. Time will tell!

Who Might Be Next?

Following the breakthrough in relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, many are wondering which Arab states might be next to make peace with Israel. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo recently visited several likely candidates, including Bahrain, Oman and Morocco. Although he returned home without another diplomatic trophy to help US President Donald Trump’s re-election effort, there is reason for hope that progress will come soon enough.

Oman seems the surest bet as the next Arab nation to join the peace camp. Oman’s rulers were the most vocal in their praise of the deal made by their next-door neighbour. And it has hosted three sitting Israeli prime ministers over recent decades, going back to Yitzhak Rabin and Shimon Peres, and more recently Benjamin Netanyahu. They also have extensive trade relations and other interactions with Israel. But they are holding back for now, perhaps to see what the UAE gets out of their deal or whether Trump will get re-elected

Bahrain also is a prime candidate, but is somewhat constrained by its delicate internal political situation. The ruling Sunni Arabs are a minority in their own country, facing unrest from a Shi’ite majority prone to Iranian influence. During the Arab Spring uprisings several years ago, Shi’ites staged mass protests against the Sunni king, forcing the Saudis to march troops across the 16-mile long causeway to the island nation to save him from being overthrown.

Saudi Arabia is starting to open up more to the world, and has developed quiet ties with Israel. But as guardians of Mecca as well as mainstream Sunni traditions, the ruling family will move slowly on both tracks. Yet glacial changes are taking place. The younger Saudi generations, as reflected by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, have access to the Internet and are more open to Western influences. They can now go see movies, while women are allowed to drive, travel without chaperones, and attend sporting events. There also are signs of warming relations with Israel. For instance, Riyadh is now letting commercial airlines, including El Al, to fly over Saudi territory on routes to and from Tel Aviv. But it will take time, and for the present the Saudis are sticking with their 2002 Arab peace initiative, which requires a Palestinian state before normalisation with Israel.

Sudan also has signalled an interest in reconciling with Israel, but the nation is still in the midst of a fragile transition away from a radical Muslim dictatorship and anti-Israel elements remain in the provisional council. Further, the overtures to Israel appear to be almost exclusively motivated by a desire to reap rewards from Washington, including debt and sanctions relief. Still, it is a welcome change to see Sudan moving away from the Iran axis and no longer hosting radical Palestinian and Islamic terror militias on its soil.

Finally, Secretary Pompeo made a stop in Morocco in hopes of coaxing its monarchy to close a deal with Israel. Morocco was once home to a large Jewish community which contributed much to the country, and that heritage still enjoys some measure of respect there. Morocco has hosted Israeli leaders and shown less hostility towards Israel than most Arab League states. But it also has its share of Islamic rejectionists – like the current prime minister, a member of the Muslim Brotherhood. Some analysts also believe Rabat is conditioning peace with Israel on both Washington and Jerusalem recognising its disputed claim to the Western Sahara.

Meantime, it also must be factored in that Turkey, Iran and the Palestinians themselves are actively fomenting opposition to the Israel-UAE normalisation pact, trying to deter anyone else from concluding a peace accord with the Jewish state.

Progress towards peace between Israel and the Arab world is never easy. But the Trump team has managed an historic breakthrough and more incremental advances can be expected. But it would take President Trump being returned to office in November for the current diplomatic momentum to be sustained.