by David Parsons, ICEJ Senior Vice President & Spokesman

While the military battle over Gaza has quieted down in recent weeks, the diplomatic battle over its future has heated up. On Monday, The UN Security Council adopted a resolution approving US President Donald Trump’s 20-point plan for rebuilding Gaza, which left many on the Israeli Right complaining that it opened the door to a Palestinian state. The next day, Trump hosted Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman at the White House and agreed to sell him advanced F-35 fighter jets without requiring Riyadh to normalize relations with Israel, further upsetting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s support base. But Netanyahu and his confidants urged caution, insisting that all was going according to plan.

So, was it a really bad week for Bibi, as many in Israel fret, or are Trump and Netanyahu actually in lock step on choreographed moves to isolate Hamas and revive the momentum of the Abraham Accords?

The Trump Plan and its Poor Rollout
The Trump plan came together quite quickly after Qatar got hit first by Iranian missiles and then by a surprise Israeli air strike on Hamas leaders in Doha. The Qatari regime suddenly feared that the war they helped ignite via their foolhardy support of Hamas was now coming to their own shores, so they finally started exerting real pressure on the Islamist terror militia to release the remaining Israeli hostages and end the conflict. Before long, Trump had achieved a major diplomatic breakthrough in winning endorsements from dozens of Arab, Muslim and Western nations for his comprehensive plan for a ceasefire and total rebuild in Gaza.

The Trump blueprint for Gaza consisted of three stages. Israel and Hamas officially agreed only to phase one – a ceasefire, exchange of hostages for prisoners, and an IDF withdrawal to the “yellow line” which basically splits Gaza in half along a north-south axis. Phase two called for forming a global “Board of Peace” headed by Trump himself to oversee the enormous investment of funds needed to rebuild Gaza, an interim cabinet of Palestinian technocrats to administer the enclave, and an international stabilization force from Arab and Muslim countries acceptable to Israel to keep the peace and oversee the disarming of Hamas.

This is where things got stuck. All three core bodies needed to implement phase two remain in the embryonic stage of formation. In particular, the Arab and Muslim states balked at the idea of contributing troops to a Gaza police force that might end up clashing with Hamas if required to physically disarm the terror militia. At the least, they demanded the plan receive approval from the United Nations, like so many other international peacekeeping missions. They also insisted the UN decision include a clear path to Palestinian statehood.

So, the American administration spent last week formulating a draft resolution for the UN Security Council to give its stamp of approval to the Trump plan. The resolution adopted on Monday mirrors the terms of the Trump plan for Gaza, including the provisions for a governing board, a temporary cabinet, and the stabilization force. But some in Israel immediately raised concerns that it includes a path to Palestinian statehood, among other objections.

Criticism from both the Israeli Right and Left grew louder on Tuesday when Trump rolled out the red carpet for the Saudi crown prince and promised him F-35 stealth bombers without requiring normalization with Israel.

For many in Israel, this appeared to be a triple blow for Netanyahu, as Trump allowed the UN to get involved in Gaza, opened the gate for Palestinian statehood, and let the Saudis off the hook on having to join the Abraham Accords.

The grumblings even from within Netanyahu’s own government had already reached a crescendo days before the UN vote, forcing him to reassure the weekly Israeli cabinet meeting on Sunday that, “our opposition to a Palestinian state on any territory has not changed. Gaza will be demilitarized and Hamas will be dismantled — the easy way or the hard way.”

After the Security Council resolution passed, Netanyahu followed up with another statement welcoming the UN’s endorsement of the Trump plan, saying it “will lead to peace and prosperity because it insists upon full demilitarization, disarmament, and the deradicalization of Gaza… true to President Trump’s vision. [it also will] lead to further integration of Israel and its neighbors as well as expansion of Abraham Accords.”

Loyalists of Netanyahu even suggested he had closely coordinated with Trump the submission of his Gaza plan to the UN Security Council as part of a grand scheme that will sideline both Hamas and the Palestinian Authority, and eventually forge an Israeli-Saudi regional alliance.

Now, I have my doubts about the ultra-positive spin on what transpired this week, but I also suspect there is more than meets the eye regarding real progress for Israel.

Trusting in Trump
First, it is extremely helpful for Israel that the UN Security Council has endorsed a plan which calls for disarming Hamas, dismantling its terror tunnels, and ending its cruel reign in Gaza. The UN decision also gives international legitimacy for the IDF’s presence inside Gaza until these goals are achieved – a rare feat indeed.

The UNSC resolution also does not require or demand the creation of a Palestinian state. Rather it only states that a pathway to Palestinian statehood may be possible if the circumstances allow – just as Trump’s plan states.

The resolution’s text specifically states that once the Palestinian Authority has carried out a series of US-mandated reforms and Gaza’s redevelopment has advanced, the “conditions may finally be in place for a credible pathway to Palestinian self-determination and statehood.” It adds that “the United States will establish a dialogue between Israel and the Palestinians to agree on a political horizon for peaceful and prosperous coexistence.”

The critical question is whether this resolution has moved the goalposts in any way regarding Israel’s right to refuse the establishment of a Palestinian state. I would assess that right remains intact. And even if it demanded a state, ultimately the resolution is not binding on any party. It was disappointing that it came under Trump’s watch, and we certainly can expect the Palestinians to exploit any opening to its fullest, but Israel can still keep the door closed.

It also is worth noting that Hamas condemned the UNSC resolution as forcing an international guardianship on Gaza and helping the “occupation” achieve its aims. They also refused once again to disarm, a position which will only further isolate them within the region.

Meanwhile, it would have been extremely beneficial for Israel if Trump had stood his ground and conditioned Saudi Arabia’s acquisition of the F-35 jets on their signing of the Abraham Accords. But he opted for a major investment deal with Mohammed bin Salman now in hopes that normalization will soon follow. And actually, the first batch of the fifth-generation stealth aircraft will likely not be delivered for at least seven years, giving plenty of time to coax Riyadh into opening ties with Israel.

In the end, I think the most we can say with certainty about the UN Security Council decision this week is that it formally installed President Trump as the Governor of Gaza. The level of UN oversight over his actions is unclear and may prove to be very minimal. That is, Trump has free rein to proceed in Gaza at his own pace and on his own terms. This is good for Israel if he continues to be the best friend in the White House the Jewish state has ever had. But it also means that Israel is now more dependent on Trump than it has ever been on any other person in its modern history.

It is disappointing that Trump got the UN involved in Gaza and allowed references to Palestinian statehood in this latest Security Council resolution. But I still believe that over the next three years, until his time in office ends, Donald Trump will make good decisions when it comes to Israel, and that he will never force Israel to accept a Palestinian state. He has been so non-committal on the issue, even again saying in front of bin Salman this week, “one-state, two-states, whatever the parties want.” But it also means we are in a season when pro-Israel Christians must keep earnestly praying and trusting the Lord that President Trump is – as many maintain – a biblical ‘Cyrus’ for our day, who “shall perform all My pleasure…” (Isaiah 44:28).

Cover photo credit: US Embassy in Israel