The international community was taken by surprise in early December by an updated US National Intelligence Estimate which concluded that Iran froze its nuclear weapons program in 2003, a finding that Israel worries may take the steam out of diplomatic efforts to confront Tehran and its threats to destroy the Jewish state.

The revised intelligence assessment came just as the and European Union seemed to have finally convinced and to go along with tougher economic sanctions against 's renegade nuclear program. The progress came after 's new nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili, a close ally of president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his Islamic doomsday sect, defiantly lectured his counterparts about God, theology and the need to start talks all over again with him.

But then two days later, the sanctions effort was dealt an unexpected blow when the Bush Administration released declassified excerpts from its latest NIE, determining that Iran froze its nuclear military program four years ago when American-led forces invaded Iraq, though it continues to enrich uranium in defiance of UN Security Council resolutions.

Responding to the startling new assessment, contended that while Washington may be right about a freeze in 2003, has since revived key components of nuclear arms production. This includes accelerated uranium enrichment, advances in long-range ballistic missiles, and construction of a 40-megawatt heavy-water reactor in Arak that could produce plutonium – all phases of building and delivering a nuclear bomb.

"We cannot allow ourselves to rest just because of an intelligence report from the other side of the earth, even if it is from our greatest friend," insisted Defense Minister Ehud Barak.

To reassure , the Bush Administration dispatched the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Navy Admiral Michael Mullen, on a rare visit to Jerusalem to convey Washington’s position that it still considers a serious threat. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and even President George W. Bush are also due in the region by January to bring the same comforting message.

The Bush Administration has scrambled to keep other key nations from misreading the report as cause for relieving pressure on . Bush himself has stressed the lesson of the new report is that international pressure on has been working and needs to be bolstered. He added the option of a pre-emptive military strike against is still on the table.

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has downplayed the sudden intelligence gap between and the , and instructed all cabinet ministers to stop speaking about it in the media.

The gag order came after Barak again criticized the NIE findings, reportedly complaining that, "The chances of drafting an international coalition against while Bush is president approach zero. We are waiting for the next administration.”

Government sources have told The Jerusalem Post that does not have "smoking gun" intelligence that will force an American reassessment on the issue. "If we had information that we held back, then we have only ourselves to blame for the report," one official said.

Nonetheless, most Israelis feel there is little margin for error when it comes to ’s pursuit of the ‘Bomb.’ has been through some major intelligence failures of late, including the shock of 9/11, the futile search for weapons of mass destruction in , and the A. Q. Khan nuclear black-market ring out of . cannot afford to risk another intelligence blunder when its existence is at stake.

Prof. Gerald Steinberg of Bar-Ilan University has followed the Iranian proliferation problem closely and questions whether there might be a deliberate "under-reaction" in this report.

"This was put together by 16 different intelligence agencies," Steinberg recently told The Christian Edition. "Whenever you have that kind of unanimity, there's something wrong. There should always be differences of opinion."

Steinberg believes the Bush team shot itself in the foot with the way the report was publicly "packaged." Immediately afterwards, started shipping nuclear fuel for the plant it built at Bushehr, while signed a huge deal to develop 's oil and natural gas fields.

"For Israelis… this [report] may increase the possibility of a military confrontation with ," he concludes ominously.

The writer is media director for the International Christian Embassy Jerusalem. This article was first published in the January 2008 issue of The Jerusalem Post Christian Edition.

To subscribe to The Christian Edition, Click Here

Print    Tell a friend